Fitch Ratings has affirmed Tabcorp Holdings' long-term issuer default rating and senior unsecured notes at BBB-, maintaining a stable outlook. The agency expects the Australian wagering group to keep credit metrics consistent with that rating despite pressure on discretionary consumer spending.
Tabcorp's Fitch-defined EBITDAR margin rose to 16.5% in the financial year ended June 2026 from 15% a year earlier. Fitch forecasts the margin at about 18% by FY29 as the company uses its exclusive licences, media assets and retail network to deepen customer engagement, according to the rating commentary.
The agency expects EBITDAR net leverage to peak at about 2.0 times in FY27 before declining to roughly 1.5 times from FY28. That path depends partly on a full-year earnings contribution and planned cost savings from Tabcorp's proposed acquisition of BetMakers Technology Group.
Fitch described the BetMakers deal as modestly positive because it can add contracted business-to-business revenue and technology capabilities, while saying the transaction is not expected to transform Tabcorp's market exposure. Inside Asian Gaming also noted Fitch's expectation that regulatory reforms may continue to reduce structural disadvantages in Australian wagering.
